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07/28/2010 - Thunder Bay, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Ellis is like any other player on Canada's junior national baseball team - following his passion by playing the sport he loves.
What's different about him and the rest of Team Canada's 18-and-unders is that they're chasing a dream very few people their age will ever experience.
So when the 18-year-old pitcher from Surrey, B.C. was selected by the San Diego Padres in the 35th round of the 2010 MLB Draft in June, Ellis accomplished something far from the norm of his peers.
He remembers following the draft online before going to school that day and how it sunk in later that night that his dream of making it to the major leagues was very much alive.
"I was sitting down and it hit me that I have an opportunity to still play pro ball and it doesn't really matter what round I get selected, but where I end up," said Ellis at the junior national team's workouts in Toronto earlier this month.
Where he is now is in Thunder Bay, Ont. representing his country and competing for a world title against the best young baseball players on the planet.
"It's special being able to play for your country," said Ellis, after throwing four scoreless innings in a 9-2 win over Panama at the Worlds on Tuesday night. "I've never had a chance to do that in a tournament like this."
Ellis, who has experienced the perils and spoils of being a star pitcher in his hometown of Surrey, said nothing's quite like donning the red and white on an international stage.
"I've played in a few national tournaments but compared to this, it's a whole new level," he said prior to arriving in Thunder Bay.
He's experienced that other level too, joining teammate and Texas Rangers' first round pick Kellin Deglan at the Seattle Mariners' pre-draft training camp prior to being selected by the Padres.
For a pitcher whose strengths lay in his ability to command the strike zone and keep hitters off balance with breaking pitches, Ellis said it was a little overwhelming to be in an environment where six-foot-five, 230-pound college players were a dime a dozen.
"It really was humbling knowing the kind of competition you're getting into, the guys you're competing for spots with," he said. "I know that I don't have the body type to be the 95-98 miles per hour fastball guy that strikes everybody out.
"I try to be efficient and stay within myself."
At six-foot-one and 180 pounds, Ellis said he focuses on fooling hitters with off-speed pitches rather than blowing them away with heat.
The right-hander's arsenal includes a slider he's been working on since spring training in Florida, one he said back-doors on righties and cuts in on lefties.
With a fastball topping out in the 88-90 miles per hour range, Ellis is constantly trying to figure out ways to maximize his strengths on the mound.
"I want to get a little bit better throwing to both sides of the plate with all my pitches," he said, describing the benefit of working with guys such as pitching coach and former major league pitcher Paul Quantrill. "We have really good coaches with a lot of good insight and professional experience."
Ellis knows locating his pitches will be key in a tournament like the Worlds, where Padres' scouts are sure to be in attendance as he tries to pitch his way into a major league contract.
Should the Padres choose not to sign him before the August 15 deadline, Ellis will attend Florida International in Miami, a Division I school where he expects to compete for a spot in the starting rotation.
<< Talbot adds heat to Winter Classic
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Thank goodness the NHL still has a few
guys like Max Talbot.
Today's athletes are generally so concerned with image that they are constantly
guarding themselves against saying something controversial. If y
<< Royals demote Marte, call up Bullington
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Royals optioned reliever
Victor Marte to and recalled pitcher Bryan Bullington from Triple-A Omaha
Wednesday.
This will be Bullington's second stint with the big league club this s
<< Raul completes Schalke switch
Gelsenkirchen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Madrid legend Raul has
confirmed the new chapter in his career by joining Bundesliga side Schalke.
The 33-year-old striker has agreed to a two-year contract with Schalke after
officia
<< McGowan joins St Mirren on loan
Paisley, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - St Mirren have signed striker Paul
McGowan on a season-long loan deal from SPL side Celtic.
The 22-year-old has made just a handful of starts for the Bhoys to date and
has previously been loaned
CFL East: Blue Bombers dominant with Jyles at the helm >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The East division took full advantage of
home cooking last week, as Montreal, Toronto, and Winnipeg all won within their
friendly confines. Hamilton was the lone East team to fall, as touchdowns in
their match
PGA Championship Hole-By-Hole Preview >>
Haven, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
HOLE ONE - Par 4 - 408 yards: Bending from right to left, the opening hole on
the Straits Course gives the player his first glimpse of mighty Lake Michigan,
not to mention the myriad bunkers strewn across the cours
Sochaux adds Maiga from Le Mans >>
Montbeliard, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sochaux completed the signing of Mali
international striker Modibo Maiga from Le Mans on Wednesday.
Maiga scored seven goals in 32 appearances for Le Mans last season, but after
the club was relega
Pironkova knocked out in Istanbul >>
Istanbul, Turkey (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wimbledon semifinalist Tsvetana
Pironkova was a second-round upset victim Wednesday at the $220,000 Istanbul
Cup hardcourt tennis event.
Russian-born Aussie Anastasia Rodionova upended the fi
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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