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09/18/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Not even a serious injury to a teammate could will the Buffalo Bills to a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers this past Sunday at Heinz Field.
With reserve tight end Kevin Everett laid up in a Buffalo hospital bed after a serious spinal cord injury suffered in Week 1, his teammates were a few hours away getting their behinds kicked around by the Steelers.
This game wasn't even close, as the Bills watched Mike Tomlin's Steelers race out to a 12-0 lead on four straight field goals by Jeff Reed. Buffalo would stop the bleeding with a field goal of its own, but Pittsburgh was too much on defense and continued to plug away for a 26-3 victory.
After losing in the final seconds to the Denver Broncos in Week 1 , Dick Jauron's Bills failed to establish the run game and quarterback J.P. Losman was sacked four times.
Buffalo's offensive line failed to provide the holes necessary for rookie running back Marshawn Lynch to run through on Sunday. Instead, the first-year player out of Cal was held to 64 yards on 18 carries.
Lynch is the future of the Bills, and when he is taken out of the game it's up to Losman to find the creases in the defense. Losman couldn't find Lynch at times, as he connected with his running back just once for 21 yards.
"We had guys open sometimes and (the Steelers) did some things to confuse us in the pass game and in pass protection," said Losman, who ended 15-of-25 passing for 154 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions.
The offense recorded just 223 total yards, while the defense couldn't stop Steelers running back Willie Parker. Parker had 126 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries and burnt Buffalo's front four and linebacker corps all day. The Bills have allowed 100 or more rushing yards in 11 straight games dating back to last season, and also permitted more than 400 yards of offense for the second straight week.
Bills rookie linebacker Paul Posluszny finished the day with a game-high 12 total tackles in his homecoming.
"It was great being home, seeing the city and seeing the area," the Penn State product and Western Pennsylvania native said. "The game didn't turn out anything like we wanted it to be. Winning the game would have made this weekend a lot better."
Posluszny has been one of the lone bright spots on Buffalo's defense this year, with 23 tackles over the first two games.
With the Bills without injured defenders Ko Simpson, Coy Wire and Jason Webster on Sunday, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger picked apart Posluszny and the depleted Buffalo secondary by hitting nine different receivers and throwing for 242 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
WHEN WILL LOSMAN BREAK OUT?
After throwing for 200 or more yards in three straight games to close out the 2006 season, Losman has yet to pass for more than 154 yards in 2007.
Losman has been a project for offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild after enjoying a solid '06 season -- his first full year as a starter. But this year Losman has failed to establish a connection with star wide receiver Lee Evans.
Losman, who has one more year remaining on his contract, must prove to his coaches that he is the quarterback of the future. Even owner Ralph Wilson stated that Losman must improve each week and show some consistency. The only thing he is consistent at right now is producing mediocre numbers and being streaky. If there was an Allan Houston of the NBA, Losman would be a strong candidate.
I'm not sure how many chances Losman will get until the Bills work rookie quarterback Trent Edwards, who was selected in the third round of the 2007 NFL Draft, into the lineup. Going to Edwards right away is the wrong choice, but when Week 8 rolls by and Losman is still missing receivers with inaccurate throws and making poor decisions, expect Jauron and Fairchild to start grooming Edwards.
"I think we are throwing the ball effectively, when we get those plays called," Losman said after the Pittsburgh loss. "Certain things are hindering us, like penalties and some protection issues. But we'll get those corrected. We understand we are 0-2 at this point. We understand the offense has gotten off to a slow start. We also understand we've played two great defenses so far."
Sounds like somebody has the case of the excuse bug. If Losman can't shoulder the blame and be the leader most NFL quarterbacks are, he can start getting re-acquainted with the clipboard he held so dearly his first few seasons.
UP NEXT: BILLS HEAD TO NEW ENGLAND
Losman will have a chance to quiet his critics when he leads the Bills against the New England Patriots this weekend in Foxborough. It's not an easy task going to Gillette Stadium and coming out on top. Just ask the high-powered San Diego Chargers, who were handed a 38-14 loss by the Pats on Sunday night.
If San Diego's Phillip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson had trouble against the Patriots, imagine what kind of success Lynch and Losman will have. It certainly doesn't look good for Buffalo, but stranger things have occurred.
New England has won 12 of the last 13 matchups with the Bills, including sweeps in the 2004, 2005 and 2006 seasons.
<< Defense bails out defending champion Colts
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Even though Peyton Manning played up to his usual standards
on Sunday, it was the Indianapolis Colts' defense that saved the day in a
22-20 win over the AFC South-rival Tennessee Titans at LP Field.
Colts defensive coordin
<< Sean Burke announces retirement from NHL
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Longtime goaltender Sean Burke announced his
retirement from the National Hockey League on Tuesday.
The well-traveled Burke appeared in 820 games over his 19-year career with the
New Jersey Devils, Hartford
<< Browns experience offensive explosion against Bengals
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Brady Quinn era might have to wait a little longer in
Cleveland.
After a disappointing opening-week loss to Pittsburgh, the Browns capped a
strange week with an unbelievable 51-45 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Fo
<< Give some love to the Sun Belt
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There were more important games played
this past week than Oklahoma State at Troy and Minnesota at Florida Atlantic,
such as Kentucky topping Louisville and USC demolishing Nebraska, but the
number one story
Schaub, defense lead Texans to 2-0 start >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There's a buzz going on right now in Houston and it has
nothing to do with the Astros on the cusp of missing the postseason for a
second consecutive year.
It's too early to start talking playoffs in the NFL, but the Housto
King ousts Bartoli in Kolkata >>
Kolkata, India (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - American Vania King upset top-seeded
Marion Bartoli in first-round action Tuesday at the $175,000 Sunfeast Open.
The 18-year-old King dismissed the Wimbledon runner-up Bartoli in 6-1, 7-5
fashion
Hester not slowing down in year two for Chicago >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sometimes when you cage the beast, the beast gets angry.
Words of wisdom from perhaps a famous general, a ruthless dictator, or maybe
even a high-energy athlete?
Actually, it was Wolverine (played by Hugh Jackman) from X
Bammer, Zvonareva win openers in Slovenia >>
Portoroz, Slovenia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Second-seeded Austrian Sybille Bammer
and fifth-seeded Russian Vera Zvonareva were among Tuesday's first-round
victors at the $145,000 Slovenia Open.
Bammer blew past her countrywoman Yvonne Me
Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com
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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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