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11/28/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If this year on the PGA Tour showed anything, it's that the Nationwide Tour should be looked at seriously for golfers of the future.
After a record number of rookies won on the big tour and Keegan Bradley won the PGA Championship, one can look at this year's Nationwide Tour finish and possibly see among it a future major champion. And not in the next five years -- more like 2012.
It was written after last year that the Nationwide Tour season turned out to be a dud because there was no in-season promotion. Once again, several players had a golden opportunity to earn win No. 3 of the year, but once again, nobody stepped up to the plate.
No matter, we've now seen what some of these players can do when given an opportunity on the biggest stage. And besides, two wins gets you promoted in the long run anyway.
If anyone considered the Nationwide Tour a place where borderline prospects get sent to the big stage, it's time to re-think your position. There will be winners on the 2012 PGA Tour from the group of 25 promoted. It's anyone's guess just who that will be.
The 2011 Nationwide Tour season was another good one with a few dominant players, some familiar names and some new ones. In the end, it was a new face that came out just a tad better than the rest of them.
PLAYER OF THE YEAR - J.J. Killeen
The winner of this year's money title, Killeen came out of nowhere to capture the Utah Championship and Cox Classic in back-to-back weeks in late July-early August. It had many people thinking he would be the one to earn the elusive promotion to the PGA Tour, but it didn't happen until the end of the season.
He had been knocking on the door with a pair of top-five finishes earlier in the year, but finally broke through in July for his first career win. Now, he'll get a chance to do the same thing on the PGA Tour for the first time.
Killeen finished rather slow, with two cuts missed in his last four events, but it doesn't overshadow his tour-leading six top-five finishes and $12,000 lead over Ted Potter, Jr. for the money title.
Missing the cut: Potter, Mathew Goggin and Jason Kokrak.
TOURNAMENT OF THE YEAR - Children's Hospital Invitational
Coming into the year, only one amateur had won in Nationwide Tour history. Early in 2011, Russell Henley made it two, and the Children's Hospital Invitational proved to be a guarantee for a third.
Whereas Henley fought off numerous professionals, this event had two amateurs battling for the title all week, with nobody else in contention by the end. John Peterson held the lead for each of the first three rounds, and Harris English came charging at the end to battle for the title.
Peterson led English by one at the start of the final round, and the two made up the final pairing of the tournament. Peterson found himself three strokes clear after a two-shot swing at the first hole.
Just when it looked as if Peterson, the NCAA Individual Champion, would cruise to the title, English birdied a pair of holes to cut the gap to one once again. English finally drew even with a birdie at the 12th, and there were six holes left to figure out which guy was going to take the crown.
English went ahead for the first time when Peterson bogeyed the 14th, but Peterson came back with a birdie at the 15th, and English bogeyed the hole to create a two-shot swing that changed the lead.
Heading into the final hole, Peterson held a one-stroke advantage, but it simply wasn't meant to be for the LSU Tiger. His tee shot off the final hole landed in a divot in the rough, and he ended up missing a 15-footer for par. When English drained a 10-foot birdie putt on the same hole, it was the Georgia Bulldog, English, who took the crown in exciting fashion.
In the end, the biggest beneficiary may have been Kyle Reifers, who got to take home first-place money after finishing in a tie for second. Reifers, who collected the biggest check because the two amateurs maintained their status, ended up fifth on the money list and earned a promotion to the PGA Tour.
English and Peterson, meanwhile, did not.
SHOT OF THE YEAR - The shot of the year turned out to be a miss, unfortunately.
Former Midshipman Billy Hurley III needed a couple balls to bounce his way in the Nationwide Tour Championship to earn his PGA Tour card for 2012. After five years post-graduation in the Navy, he had made it this far, but was about to barely miss the top 25.
David Lingmerth began the final event 50th on the money list, but had a five- foot birdie putt on the last hole to make it into the top 25. Instead, he missed it and finished 27th.
Unfortunate, but golf is a zero-sum game, meaning someone benefited from the miss.
That someone was Hurley.
He didn't have any wins this year, but Hurley got into the top 25 by about $5,000 over James Nitties. Hurley walked off the course in 26th, but finished in 25th to get the biggest prize of his life. Nitties and Lingmerth can both get onto the PGA Tour next year as they made it to the Final Stage of Q School.
GOOD YEAR
Potter: One of four players with two wins, Potter finished second on the money list, $12,000 behind Killeen despite seven fewer events. If he had had a better schedule, maybe he would have been a lock for an in-season promotion.
English: He finished 65th on the money list, just missing the field for the Nationwide Tour Championship. Had he foregone his amateur status when he posted his victory, he would not only have easily made that field, but would likely be ticketed for the PGA Tour as well (and likely would have knocked Hurley out). English could get that elusive tour card as he reached the finals of PGA Tour Q School.
BAD YEAR
John Smoltz: He got an invitation to play in the South Georgia Classic, and the future Hall of Fame pitcher, who is a scratch golfer, was expected to prove his worth. While he wasn't expected to win, he wasn't expected to finish nine strokes worse than anybody else. At 27-over-par through two rounds, Smoltz was never in the hunt to make the cut.
<< Kentucky takes top spot in men's hoops poll; UNC down to fifth
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kentucky has ascended to the top of the
Associated Press men's college basketball poll after North Carolina's loss to
UNLV on Saturday dropped the Tar Heels down four places.
Kentucky and North Carolin
<< This Week in Golf -- November 30th through December 5th
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - PGA TOUR - CHEVRON WORLD CHALLENGE -
Sherwood Country Club, Thousand Oaks, California - You ever think you'd see
the day where Tiger Woods would barely qualify for his own tournament?
We did.
W
<< Chalmers' win in Australia gets him to 63rd
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Greg Chalmers' second big in Australia on
Sunday at the Australian PGA Championship moved him to 63rd in this week's
world rankings.
Chalmers, who also won the Australian Open earlier in the month, j
<< Blue Monday for Boudreau and Maurice
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Capitals and Carolina
Hurricanes had disparate expectations for their clubs heading into the 2011-12
campaign, but less than two months into the season the franchises find
themselves in similar
Flyers D Pronger to have knee surgery >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Philadelphia Flyers captain Chris Pronger
will undergo surgery Tuesday to clean out loose particles in his left knee and
the team expects he will be back playing in four weeks.
The veteran defenseman has
Sad that Speed won't get to finish what he started >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The soccer world took a stunning blow to the gut on Sunday
morning when Wales manager Gary Speed was found hanged inside his home.
The 42-year-old was by all accounts a consummate professional who enjoyed a
distinguish
Baylor continues to top women's hoops poll >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Baylor is still an overwhelming choice as the
top women's college basketball team in the nation, according to the latest
Associated Press poll released Monday.
The Lady Bears again received all but one o
Back to the business of basketball >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the first time in five months, it's
time to shelve all the accounting talk in favor of basketball, a welcome
respite believe me. I'll take PER over BRI anytime
The owners and players will l
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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